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APRIL 2008 BEACON
Spring May Bring April Showers...
But TV Demand is Drying Up!
Wall Street Journal Says Even HDTV Demand Has Dropped
 
<Wall Street Journal - April 2, 2008>The Wall Street Journal reported today that new studies indicate that consumer demand for televisions, even HDTV, is dropping significantly. Noting that the television category has been a primary driver of overall industry activity, the story refers to multiple industry reports and consumer surveys as indicating that an anticipated industry slowdown is exceeding analysts’ expectations.

One such report is compiled regularly by ChangeWave Research who surveys 4,000 tech enthusiasts every month. Their most recent survey results from mid-February indicated that only 19% of respondents had plans to spend on consumer electronics in the next ninety day period. Officials at ChangeWave say that this is the lowest percentage they have ever measured since beginning their survey in 2002 and is a full 20% below results from November 2007’s survey.

Survey participants were asked, "How will you spend your tax rebate?"

 

33% will pay down debt

 

23% will invest it

 

21% will put it in savings

 

But only 7%...will spend it on consumer electronics

 



What’s more, survey respondent’s said that they would NOT be spending their tax rebate checks on electronics with only 7% suggesting that they would do so. But 33% plan to pay down debt, 23% will invest their rebate, and 21% will save it.

Why the slowdown? The story suggests two culprits: a weak economy, and two years of solid sales of flat panel HDTVs that increased penetration but now is causing diminished demand. The story mentions recent reports by both Sam’s Club and Costco indicating TV demand softening.

In a separate report of fiscal fourth quarter performance, Best Buy reported declines in comparable store sales and profits. Results were “negatively impacted by the soft revenue growth environment.” While including flat panel TVs in categories showing growth in the fourth quarter, Best Buy noted offsetting losses in big screen and tube TVs.

Best Buy recently cut its guidance in several key categories and indicated that sales after the holidays of categories like home theater were disappointing. However, Best Buy’s results exceeded most analyst estimates and the stock moved up more than 1% to close at 43.94 on the news.

Circuit City, will report their results next week and many analysts are waiting with bated breath. Circuit’s stock has declined something like 75% in the last year and management is under the gun as an activist investor seeks to out CEO Schoonover and place a slate of five directors on Circuit’s board.

All-in-all, between the struggling economy and slacking television demand…those April showers may leave us all wet!